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2022/12/21
TrendForce’s latest research finds that TV brands’ promotional activities related to China’s Singles’ Day were helped by the steep decline in display panel prices With panel prices reaching a very low level, TV brands were able to cut their prices further so as to raise shipments of whole TV sets during the promotional period On the other hand, the major international brands have come into the second half of this year with a high level of inventory as their sales performances were weaker than expected during the first half In order to effectively consume the existing inventory, TV brands have significantly corrected down the panel procurement quantity for 2H22 As a result, TrendForce now estimates that global TV shipments in 2H22 will reach 109 million units, reflecting a YoY decline of 27% Global TV shipments during the whole 2022 are currently projected to total 202 million units, showing YoY decline of 39% This annual shipment figure represents a decade low
This year, the TV market has seen a continuous decline in shipments Fortunately, there has also been a sharp drop in prices of large-sized panels Furthermore, freight transportation costs have fallen by more than 50% Thus, TV brands have been able to vigorously promote large-sized products, and the average size of TVs has also risen by 14 inches to 56 inches
TrendForce further points out that moving into 2023, supply will remain fairly plentiful for TV panels With the chance of a substantial rally in panel prices being extremely low, brands should feel an easing of cost pressure and have more flexibility when it comes to large-scale promotional activities However, the IMF has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2023 to 27% Moreover, the US, the Eurozone, and China as the world’s three largest regional economies will continue to experience stagnation Regarding the ongoing inflation, it has recently started to ease a bit in Europe and the US, but the major regional consumer markets on the whole will continue be under its pressure Because of these factors, TrendForce believes the growth momentum of TV shipments will be severely constrained next year Global TV shipments are currently forecasted to again register a YoY decline for 2023, falling by 14% to 199 million units
Contrasting Results for Year-End Holiday Promotions: TV Sales in China During Singles’ Day Period Fell by Nearly 10% YoY, Whereas Black Friday Period in North America Saw 13% YoY Gain Despite Economic Headwinds
TV sales in China during this year have been noticeably affected by government measures for controlling local COVID-19 outbreaks During this second half of the year, TV panel prices have fallen to a new record low, and brands have also been aggressively cutting prices so as to meet their annual shipments targets However, despite all these, TV sales in China for the Singles’ Day period still fell nearly 10% YoY Turning to the North America, TV sales there shrank by 165% YoY for 1H22 as the rapidly mounting inflationary pressure squeezed consumers’ budgets Around that same time, TV brands also reached their limit in terms of inventory accumulation To reduce the glut, brands conducted inventory check across all sections of their supply chains and made significant revisions to their procurement plans Now, in 2H22, brands have been aggressively spurring demand Full-scale promotional activities commenced on Amazon’s Prime Day, and TV sales were then ramped up to a peak on Black Friday Among brands, TCL made the largest price concession for this year, cutting the price of its 55-inch Mini LED backlit model by 70% to US$199 Other brands also energetically promoted their particular product models in the holiday sales competition On account of brands’ efforts, TV sales in North America for the Black Friday period rose by 13% YoY While China and North America have exhibited very contrasting performances for the busy season, it is also clear that TV brands on the whole have gradually lowered their inventories to a relatively optimal level after months of promotional activities across channels and corrections to panel procurements
Shipments of 8K TVs Are Projected to Drop for First Time in 2022 by 74% YoY, but Growth Will Return Next Year with Unit Figure Rising Above 500,000
Another notable development that TrendForce has observed in the TV market is the tepid performance of high-end products Due to the lack of supporting broadcasting content and high retail prices, most TV brands have not been particularly keen on pushing 8K models And after years of advocacy, Samsung remains the single dominant brand for 8K TVs with a market share almost 70% Additionally, high inflation has eaten into consumers’ budgets this year TrendForce therefore projects that 8K TV shipments will register a YoY decline for the first time in 2022, dropping by 74% to just about 400,000 units It is also worth noting that Europe as one of the main sales regions for 8K TVs could be affected by the updated EU energy consumption labelling scheme (ie, Energy Efficiency Index) Specifically, energy consumption rules have been further tightened so that some older 8K models could be banned from the region starting in March 2023 However, Samsung is planning to launch new 8K models that meet the updated energy consumption standards Moreover, display panel suppliers continue to promote 8K products so as to widen adoption among TV brands TrendForce currently forecasts that shipments of 8K TVs will surpass the 500,000 unit mark for 2023, registering a YoY growth of 20%
Shipments of WOLED TVs Are Projected to Drop by 62% YoY for 2022 and Fall Further by 27% YoY for 2023
TrendForce’s latest research on panel prices finds that LCD panel prices have plummeted In fact, the price of a 55-inch UHD LCD was 48 times lower than the price of a WOLED (white OLED) O/C panel at the end of 3Q22 With the price difference between the two panels returning to where it was at the start of 2020, selling WOLED TVs have been quite challenging for brands that do offer this kind of product Therefore, TrendForce estimates that shipments of WOLED TVs will shrink by 62% YoY to 629 million units for 2022 Assuming that LG Display does not want to sacrifice profitability, it will maintain a conservative pricing strategy when quoting WOLED panels next year Given this situation, TrendForce forecasts that WOLED TV shipments will dip again by 27% YoY for 2023
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/10/19
According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments in 3Q22 reached 5139 million units, growing 124% QoQ and falling 21% YoY As the shadow of rising inflation envelops the world, consumer product budgets have become seriously constrained, indirectly inhibiting the willingness to purchase TV products Entering the fourth quarter, TV brands have launched large-scale promotions in order to surge this year's shipments TV shipments in 4Q22 are expected to increase by 108% QoQ to 5696 million units, but still down 35% compared with the same period last year and a new low for the period Under the influence of factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation, and interest rate hikes, global TV shipments in 2022 are estimated at only 202 million units, falling 38% YoY, and the lowest level in the past decade
TrendForce further indicates, due to easing supply and potential oversupply in 2023, there is little possibility of a sharp rise in TV panel prices but this situation will help TV brands reduce cost pressures and increase the flexibility of large-scale promotions However, the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on global economic growth in October pointed out that the global economic growth rate will slow to 27% next year, and the forecast does not rule out the possibility of further decline The three largest economies include the United States, Euro zone, and China will remain stagnant, which may lead to difficulty in growing TV shipments Therefore, global TV shipments are estimated to decrease by 07% YoY in 2023, reaching 201 million units
European gas prices skyrocket, consumer budgets cast aside OLED TVs
This year, TV sales in Europe posted the worst performance among major economies Due primarily to a combination of three factors including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the shutdown of nuclear power plants in France, and the inability to generate hydropower due to drought, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared nearly four times compared with the same period last year Severely hampered by household consumption budgets, the annual decline in European TV shipments this year may reach 125% Since Europe is a major sales zone for OLED TVs, even though sales of OLED TVs in North America have grown by more than 20% bolstered by promotions this year, TV demand in Europe has been sluggish, and growth in OLED TV shipments halted for the first time since TrendForce began tracking statistics in 2016 This year's OLED TV shipments are estimated to only reach 667 million units, a decrease of 06% YoY
OLED TV demand meets strong headwinds, OLED TV shipments from industry leader LG Electronics likely to decline 27% this year
This year, LG Electronics and SONY accounted for more than 80% of the OLED TV market, with a 61% share and a 21% share, respectively However, LG Electronics lost sales in Europe and shipments in North America failed to meet expectations This year, LG Electronics' OLED TV shipments fell by 27% YoY for the first time to only 404 million units In the past, OLED TVs from Philips and Panasonic accounted for more than 60% of annual shipments in Europe but, this year, the European market has been hit by severe inflation, consumer budgets have tightened, and LG Electronics has continued its 2Q22 price slashing strategy, threatening the survival of other OLED brands and hindering 2H22 OLED TV shipments from Philips and Panasonic Philips and Panasonic OLED TV shipments in 2022 are estimated to decline by 91% and 233%, respectively
Another increase in OLED TV brightness in 2023 expected to stimulate shipments
In addition to OLED TV sales not meeting expectations in Europe this year, as LCD TV panel quotations drop precipitously, the price differential between 55-inch UHD OLED and LCD TV panels has widened from a multiple of 18 to 5 within a year, helping to reduce the promotion pricing of LCD TVs by 20-25% However, this has also caused OLED TV sales to decline In addition, the brightness performance of OLED TVs is slightly inferior to that of LCD TVs, which are also high-end products with mini LEDs as backlights Therefore, LG Display will further improve the brightness of OLED TVs by replacing materials and algorithms next year with annual shipment growth estimated to increase by 73% to 716 million units
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/07/26
According to TrendForce research, global TV shipments in 2H22 reached 4517 million units, falling 5% QoQ and 68% YoY This was the first time shipments fell below a record low of 46 million units in the second quarter The economies of Europe and the United States have been hit by rising inflation and interest rate hikes In addition, China has been affected by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and has repeatedly implemented measures such as lockdowns and a dynamic zero-COVID policy These three major TV sales regions are facing different facet of economic issues, seriously affecting overall shipments and sales TV shipments from Samsung and LG, mainly sold in Europe and the United States, were revised downward by nearly 30% in 2Q22 and, with a combined market share of nearly 32%, this development sent shockwaves through on the market
TrendForce further indicates, as the world was enveloped by inflation this year, global TV shipments reached 9272 million units in 1H22, a decrease of 58% YoY Under the sustained influence of inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, shrinking consumer budgets mean TV sales have missed forecasts, causing inventory levels to rise It has become a foregone conclusion that there will be no peak in the 2H22 peak season for TV shipments Therefore, TrendForce once again revises this year's TV shipments down to 202 million units, a decrease of 38% YoY Although TV brands are actively creating new promotion opportunities, if results are not as expected, continued risk of annual shipment volume being downgraded to below 200 million units cannot be rule out
Shipments from international brands fail to meet expectations, Hisense leaps into second place for LCD TVs
Both TV panel prices and shipping costs have fallen significantly this year, helping brands increase promotions in terminal markets However, rising inflation in Europe and the United States has caused a sustained rise in terminal inventory, so destocking has become TV brands’ primary goal this year The two major TV brands Samsung and LG are primarily sold in North America and Europe and have borne the brunt of market forces since they account for nearly 50% of shipments Samsung will face a battle to hold its shipments at 38 million units this year, a decrease of 8% YoY Although LG maintained marginal growth in OLED TV shipments, due to the rapid decline in demand for LCD TVs, annual shipments could not escape contraction, reaching 2574 million units, a decrease of 116% YoY, and dropping LG’s LCD TV shipments to fourth place for the first time
Hisense's sub-brand Vidda focuses on cost-effective products and has successfully gained favor with young and frugal bourgeoisie in the Chinese market Hisense's shipments this year are estimated to reach 2276 million units, an annual increase of 43% Not only is Hisense the only brand to grow among the five major brands, it has for the first time, simultaneously taken second place in LCD TV shipments TCL has actively cultivated overseas markets in recent years and, currently, its proportion of export sales has reached 75% However, sluggish demand in Europe and the United States has indirectly affected TCL's shipments to a tune of 218 million units this year, a decrease of 36% YoY Although Xiaomi's domestic market share is being gradually eroded by Vidda, the company is fortunate that demand in the Indian market has recovered this year, acting as a backstop for this year's shipments to remain flat, reaching 1306 million units
OLED TV market squeezed by falling LCD TV panel pricing, 2022 growth rate to contract to 78%
Terminal TV sales were weak this year but panel manufacturers continue to invest in new production capacity, resulting in an expansion of the supply/demand glut ratio of TV panels and whole devices to 35%, the most severe oversupply in the past five years As a result, the price of LCD TV panels has been in a sustained decline since 2H21 This year's decline has caused LCD TV prices to not only fall below the lows of 2019, but also blow through cash costs TrendForce forecasts LCD TV shipments at approximately 195 million units this year, down 41% YoY
On the other hand, LG Display, a major supplier of OLED TVs, maintained its quotations through product specification upgrades this year but the price gap between OLED and LCD TV panels continued to widen In terms of the price of 55-inch UHD panels, the price differential between the two has expanded from a multiple of 18 to 48 this year, which not only caused Samsung to delay its 2022 mass production schedule, but also lead to the annual growth rate of OLED TVs contracting to single digits at 78% and 723 million units LG has a market share of 58% in OLED TVs and SONY maintains a 20% share Ultimately, Samsung delayed the launch of its white OLED TVs for a year With only QD OLEDs acting as a backstop this year, the company’s market share reached 6%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/06/09
According to TrendForce, LCD TV panel quotations bore the brunt of continuous downgrades in the purchase volume of TV brands and pricing for most panel sizes have fallen to record lows Recently, it was announced that the 32-inch and 43-inch panels fell by approximately US$5~US$6 in early June, 55-inch panels fell approximately US$7, and 65-inch and 75-inch panels are also facing overcapacity pressure, down US$12 to US$14 In order to alleviate pressure caused by price decline and inventory, panel makers are successively planning to initiate more significant production control in 3Q22 According to TrendForce’s latest research, overall LCD TV panel production capacity in 3Q22 will be reduced by 12% compared with original planning
As Chinese panel makers account for nearly 66% of TV panel shipments, BOE, CSOT, and HKC are industry leaders When there is an imbalance in supply and demand, a focus on strategic direction is prioritized According to TrendForce, TV panel production capacity of the three aforementioned companies in 3Q22 is expected to decrease by 158% compared with their original planning, and 2% compared with 2Q22 Taiwanese manufacturers account for nearly 20% of TV panel shipments so, under pressure from falling prices, allocation of production capacity is subject to dynamic adjustment On the other hand, Korean factories have gradually shifted their focus to high-end products such as OLED, QDOLED, and QLED, and are backed by their own brands However, in the face of continuing price drops, they too must maintain operations amenable to flexible production capacity adjustments
TrendForce indicates, in order to reflect real demand, Chinese panel makers have successively reduced production capacity However, facing a situation in which terminal demand has not improved, it may be difficult to reverse the decline of panel pricing in June However, as TV sizes below 55 inches (inclusive) have fallen below their cash cost in May (which is seen as the last line of defense for panel makers) and is even flirting with the cost of materials, coupled with production capacity reduction from panel makers, the price of TV panels has a chance to bottom out at the end of June and be flat in July However, demand for large sizes above 65 inches (inclusive) originates primarily from Korean brands Due to weak terminal demand, TV brands revising their shipment targets for this year downward, and purchase volume in 3Q22 being significantly cut down, it is difficult to see a bottom for large-size panel pricing TrendForce expects that, optimistically, this price decline may begin to dissipate month by month starting in June but supply has yet to reach equilibrium, so the price of large sizes above 65 inches (inclusive) will continue to decline in 3Q22
TrendForce states, as panel makers plan to reduce production significantly, the price of TV panels below 55 inches (inclusive) is expected to remain flat in 3Q22 However, panel manufacturers cutting production in the traditional peak season also means that a disappointing 2H22 peak season is a foregone conclusion and it will not be easy for panel prices to reverse However, it cannot be ruled out, as operating pressure grows, the number and scale of manufacturers participating in production reduction will expand further and it timeframe extended, enacting more effective suppression on the supply side, so as to accumulate greater momentum for a rebound in TV panel quotations
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/04/26
According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments will reach 4726 million units in 1Q22, down 20% QoQ Driven primarily by the Russian-Ukrainian war, prices of raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas have risen, while the recent breakout of the Omicron strain of the pandemic in China has incited repeated no warning attempts at enacting dynamic zero-COVID, which has hindered the flow of logistics, hiked freight rates, and taken as a whole, exacerbated existing global inflation woes Consumers with limited disposable income have started to cut back on non-essentials with TV sales bearing the brunt Looking at the three major TV sales regions of North America, Europe, and China in 1Q22, high inflation in Europe and the United States has led to a sharp 20% drop in demand In China, due the festering pandemic, numerous cities have been locked down, while unemployment is spiking, logistics are impeded, and prices soar TV product sales are at a complete disadvantage and the demand in 1Q22 dropped by 15~20%
TrendForce further points out, originally Chinese brands banked on low 2Q22 panel prices and not being required to shoulder expensive shipping costs in the domestic market, expecting that the 618 anniversary promotional period would inject fresh enthusiasm into the market and boost annual shipments However, now that China's TV sales are disrupted by the pandemic, any hope riding on TV brands’ only large-scale promotional event in the first half of the year may have been dashed In addition, Q3 was when brands stocked up in previous years for Black Friday and Christmas season promotions in Europe and the United States However, this year’s FIFA World Cup was postponed to November, resulting in overlapping promotional schedules, which may curb sales Ocean freight remains expensive this year, with additional costs increasing with greater item size, which is not conducive to the rollout of branded manufacturers’ large-scale promotional activities in 2H22 Therefore, TrendForce estimates that this year's TV shipments will drop further to 212 million units, for an annual growth of only 1%, and there exists additional potential for downward risk
Demand in Europe and US misses estimates, international brands drop orders, and 2Q22 decline in TV panel prices expands further
The top two leading TV brands, Samsung and LG Electronics, are mainly sold in North America and Europe Therefore, since TV sales in Europe and the United States declined by 20% in 1Q22, this had the greatest impact on these two leading brands Samsung Electronics shipped 109 million TVs in 1Q22, down 31% QoQ while LG Electronics shipped 653 million TVs in 1Q22, down 118% QoQ and down 64% YoY Affected by weak terminal demand, the two major brands revised their panel purchase orders in late March Samsung's purchasing volume in 1Q22 was revised down 75% and fell by 95% in 2Q22 LG Electronics primarily focused on reducing purchase orders in 2Q22 and purchasing volume decline is expected to exceed 20%
TrendForce specifically states, major international manufacturers have recently revised their orders in succession Although Chinese brands have yet to see a significant reduction in orders, if 618 promotions are disappointing, it cannot be ruled out panel procurements will begin to fall in mid-to-late Q2 Although branded manufacturers significantly revised TV panel orders downward in 2Q22, panel manufacturers have not seen a significant reduction in utilization rate, which will depress the price of panels below 55 inches (inclusive) in a sustained freefall while the prices of large size panels above 65 inches (inclusive) will continue to deteriorate
Samsung Electronics delays launch of WOLEDs, styming 2022 OLED TV shipment performance
This year, the supply of OLED TV panels has benefited from LG Display's expanded production capacity of 85-generation OLED TVs in Guangzhou As supply increased, LG Display also improved product specifications and prices, but this led to Samsung Electronics delaying the verification and launch schedule of white OLED products Not only has Samsung Electronics' 2022 market share of OLED TVs shrunk from 15% at the beginning of the year to 64%, but global OLED TV shipments will be revised down to 779 million units this year, with an annual growth rate of 17%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
