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2022/06/22
According to TrendForce, semiconductor equipment is once again facing the dilemma of extended lead times up to 18-30 months Before this latest equipment lead time delay, the annual growth rate of 12-inch equivalent (including 12-inch and 8-inch) capacity supplied by global foundries in 2022 and 2023 was estimated to be 13% and 10%, respectively Current observations indicate that this delay of semiconductor equipment has a relatively marginal impact on expansion plans in 2022 with the bulk of repercussions arriving in 2023, affecting TSMC, UMC, PSMC, Vanguard, SMIC, and GlobalFoundries, and encompassing mature and advanced processes Overall expansion plans will be delayed for approximately 2 to 9 months with annual capacity growth expected to fall to 8% for the year
TrendForce adds, the lead time of semiconductor equipment prior to the pandemic was approximately 3 to 6 months Since 2020, strict pandemic induced border controls implemented by countries worldwide have impeded logistics However, during the same period, IDMs and foundries benefited from strong terminal demand and actively expanded production Thus, lead times on semiconductor equipment were obliged to lengthen to 12-18 months Induced by the Russian-Ukrainian war, logistic gridlock, and insufficient production capacity of semiconductor industrial control chips, production of semiconductor equipment will begin feeling the impact of raw material and chip shortages by 2022 Excluding EUV lithography equipment with a fixed annual output, the lead time of remaining machinery will be extended to 18-30 months, among which the shortage of DUV lithography equipment is the most serious, followed by CVD/PVD deposition and etching
It is worth mentioning that the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising inflation have affected the acquisition of various raw materials, as well as the continuing impact of the pandemic on manpower, both of which have led to delays in semiconductor fab construction This phenomenon and equipment delivery delays simultaneously affect each foundry’s expansion plans in 2023 and beyond However, since the beginning of this year, the boon of the stay-at-home economy has evaporated and the demand for consumer electronic products such as TVs, smartphones, and PCs has continued to weaken, resulting in high inventory held by terminal brands According to TrendForce investigations, foundries will still rely on product mix adjustment and the reallocation of resources to products still in short supply to maintain capacity utilization rates at close to 95% of full load
From 2H22 to 2023, high inflationary pressure may continue to depress global consumer demand However, from the supply side, the process of wafer foundry expansion is affected by factors such as equipment delivery delays and plant construction delays These delays will cause the annual growth rate of global wafer foundry capacity to shrink to 8% in 2023 TrendForce believes a prolonged expansion process has eliminated some concerns regarding oversupply in 2023 brought about by the current market conditions categorized by weak consumer demand Nevertheless, a shortage of some undersupplied materials may continue At this time, it is necessary to rely on the diversified planning of the wafer foundry for each terminal application and each product process to balance uneven distribution of mismatched material resources
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2022/04/25
According to TrendForce, Taiwan is crucial to the global semiconductor supply chain, accounting for a 26% market share of semiconductor revenue in 2021, ranking second in the world Its IC design and packaging & testing industries also account for a 27% and 20% global market share, ranking second and first in the world, respectively Firmly in the pole position, Taiwan accounts for 64% of the foundry market In addition to TSMC possessing the most advanced process technology at this stage, foundries including UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC also have their own process advantages Under the looming shadow of chip shortages caused by the pandemic and geopolitical turmoil in the past two years, various governments have quickly awakened to the fact that localization of chip manufacturing is necessary to avoid being cut off from chip acquisition due to logistics difficulties or cross-border shipment bans Taiwanese companies have ridden this wave to become partners that governments around the world are eager to invite to set up factories in various locales
Currently, 8-inch and 12-inch foundries are dominated by 24 fabs in Taiwan, followed by China, South Korea, and the United States Looking at new factories plans post 2021, Taiwan still accounts for the largest number of new fabs, including six new plants in progress, followed in activity by China and the United States, with plans for four and three new fabs, respectively Due to the advantages and uniqueness of Taiwanese fabs in terms of advanced processes and certain special processes, they accepted invitations to set up plants in various countries, unlike non-Taiwanese foundries who largely still build fabs locally Therefore, Taiwanese manufacturers have successively announced factory expansions at locations including the United States, China, Japan, and Singapore in addition to Taiwan in consideration of local client needs and technical cooperation
The focus of Taiwan's key technologies and production expansion remains in Taiwan, accounting for 44% of global wafer production capacity by 2025
In 2022, Taiwan will account for approximately 48% of global 12-inch equivalent wafer foundry production capacity Only looking at 12-inch wafer production capacity with more than 50% market share, the market share of advanced processes below 16nm (inclusive) will be as high as 61% However, as Taiwanese manufacturers expand their production globally, TrendForce estimates that the market share held by Taiwan's local foundry capacity will drop slightly to 44% in 2025, of which the market share of 12-inch wafer capacity will fall to 47% and advanced manufacturing processes to approximately 58% However, Taiwanese foundries’ recent production expansion plans remain focused on Taiwan including TSMC's most advanced N3 and N2 nodes, while companies such as UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC retain several new factory projects in Hsinchu, Miaoli, and Tainan
TrendForce believes, since Taiwanese foundries have announced plans to build fabs in China, the United States, Japan, and Singapore, and foundries in numerous countries are also actively expanding production, Taiwan's market share of foundry capacity will drop slightly in 2025 However, semiconductor enclaves do not come together quickly The integrity of a supply chain relies on the synergy among upstream (raw materials, equipment, and wafers), midstream (IP design services, IC design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing), and downstream (brands and distributors) sectors Taiwan has advantages in talent, geographical convenience and industrial enclaves Therefore, Taiwanese foundries still tend to focus on Taiwan for R&D and production expansion Looking at the existing blueprint for production expansion, Taiwan will still control 44% of the world's foundry capacity by 2025 and as much as 58% of the world's capacity for advanced processes, continuing its dominance of the global semiconductor industry
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/04/12
According to TrendForce, the consumer electronics market will feel the brunt of the weakening stay-at-home economy, the pandemic in China, international tensions, and rising inflation in 1H22 Coupled with the traditional off-season, demand for relevant applications such as PCs, laptops, TVs, and smartphones has cooled significantly and downstream customers have successively downgraded their shipment targets for the year, while demand for automotive, Internet of Things, communications, and servers products remain good At the same time, the supply chain will build higher inventories in general to mitigate the risk of material shortages due to transportation impediments induced by the spread of the pandemic and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine
1 Foundries
Due to the prolonged lead-time of semiconductor equipment and limited new capacity in 1Q22, the overall foundry capacity utilization rate remains fully loaded, in particular, component mismatch issues continue for parts produced at mature nodes (1Xnm~180nm) Looking forward to the second quarter, although growth in global wafer production capacity remains limited, due to weak demand for end products, continuing international tension, and China's forced lockdowns and supervision due to the recent spread of the pandemic, there is an opportunity for the supply chain to obtain a more adequate supply of wafers that were previously squeezed by production capacity
2 Servers
The overall supply of key server materials improved slightly in 1Q22 In addition, due to increasing orders from ultra-large data centers, the general supply cycle of NetCom chips such as LAN IC/chip remains as long as approximately 40 weeks but the demand gap can be bridged by instituting urgent order fees, mitigating actual impact As the aforementioned situation eases, additional orders for ODM motherboard production are moving briskly, prompting continued stocking of FPGAs and PMICs materials NetCom chips are also overstocked and the overall market has a reached a "rich get richer" mindset Material shortages at second-tier ODMs still stifle the production of motherboards for a small number of customers but does not affect the overall server market supply With improvements in material supply, server shipments will increase significantly in 2Q22, growing an estimated 158% QoQ to 36 million units
3 Smartphones
Affected by sluggish seasonal demand, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and rising inflation, market demand has cooled Thus, material delivery issues in the supply chain have eased compared to 2H21 Although there is still a shortage of certain components, most of these shortages are concentrated in mid/low-end smartphone products The lead time for 4G and low-end 5G SoCs is approximately 30 to 40 weeks, which is limited by production capacity planning Since last year, the demand of the mid/low-end mobile phone market has not been met This is followed by A+G sensors with a lead time of approximately 32~36 weeks and OLED DDIC and Touch IC with a lead time of 20~22 weeks The production volume of smartphones in 2Q22 will be affected by the interaction of the aforementioned factors with a forecast production volume of 323 million units, or only 6% QoQ, which is lower than the performance of previous years
4 Notebooks
Also affected by weakening end market demand, discounting client SSDs that are no longer oversupplied, Type C IC, WiFi, and PMIC all currently boast long lead times, with Type C IC the lengthiest at 20~25 weeks However, compared with TrendForce’s assessment at the beginning of this year, the delivery cycle has not grown longer, so the lead time of these three types of products is expected to improve by the end of 2Q22 As supply chain backlog continues to improve, shipments of notebook computers (including Chromebooks) is expected to reach approximately 551 million units in 2Q22, down 07% QoQ
5 MLCC Passive Components
From the perspective of other key components, taking MLCC as an example, demand for major consumer electronic products such as mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and TVs declined significantly in 1Q22, resulting in high consumer product specification MLCC inventory levels held by original suppliers and channel agents and this situation may continue into 2Q22 At present, the stocking momentum for automotive and industrial MLCCs has steadily increased, while consumer specification products have yet to escape the pattern of oversupply In 2Q22, the MLCC market has the opportunity to alleviate its component mismatch issues through gradually increased production capacity and automotive and server ICs supplied by semiconductor IDM companies, driving stocking momentum at automotive power, server, fast charging, and charging/energy storage equipment OEMs Vehicle and industrial MLCCs have the opportunity to become primary growth drivers in 2Q22 with Murata, TDK, Taiyu and Yageo as the primary beneficiaries Consumer specification products, which account for the bulk of MLCC production from suppliers in Taiwan, South Korea, and China, may face continued market demand weakness in 2Q22 due to a slowdown in demand for mobile phones and laptops and continuing inventory adjustment by branded companies and ODMs
Looking forward to 2Q22, not including servers, demand for end products related to the consumer category remains weak Components that were originally oversupplied will face more severe price tests due to the imbalance between supply and demand In terms of materials in serious short supply, more output will be transferred to products with strong demand through the deployment of internal production capacity TrendForce believes that from the changes in PC market conditions, it can be seen in rapid changes in demand, purchasing behavior has quickly switched from the former over-ordering strategy to actively cutting orders, inducing supply chains to buck the seasonal trends of previous years Due to the accelerated recent spread of Omicron in China and under the country’s dynamic zero-COVID policy, mandatory and sudden lockdown and control measures may cause local manufacturers to face multiple and complex supply chain problems, which will be detrimental to market performance
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/03/17
A powerful magnitude 73 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fukushima, Japan on the evening of March 16th (CST) Most of northeastern Japan is a production center for global upstream semiconductor raw materials According to TrendForce investigations, in the main quake zone, only Kioxia’s K1 Fab (located in Kitakami) will face the possibility of a further downgrade to 1Q22 production Some of the remaining memory or semiconductor companies in the region are conducting machine inspections but the overall impact has been muted
In terms of memory, the intensity of the earthquake at Kioxia’s K1 Fab reached magnitude 5 When the earthquake occurred, wafer input was partially damaged At present, K1 Fab has been shut down for inspection The 1Q22 production capacity of the K1 Fab had been downgraded following the recent contamination incident and accounts for approximately 8% of Kioxia's 2022 production capacity Operating under a cloud of possible aftershocks, Kioxia's capacity utilization rate may be slow to recover in the next week, causing further downward revision of K1 Fab’s 1Q22 production The remaining Kioxia factories are unaffected, as is Micron's Hiroshima plant
Looking at the market spot price, pricing has moved up since February due to the contamination of Kioxia’s raw materials The Russian-Ukrainian war did not trigger significant upward or downward movements in spot price After last night’s Fukushima earthquake, pricing remains stable TrendForce asserts, overall spot demand remains weak and prices are not prone to drastic changes
In terms of raw wafers, SUMCO's Yonezawa Plant in Yamagata and Shin-Etsu's Shirakawa Plant in Fukushima are both within the affected area, experiencing an earthquake intensity of magnitude 5 Due to the extremely high stability required in the crystal growth process, the industry has not yet announced the impact of the quake TrendForce specifies, in addition to shutdown inspections, damage to machines and silicon wafer input is inevitable However, in addition to redistributing production plans, buildings were reinforced after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, so overall damage may be minor
In terms of foundries, there are two 12-inch wafer fabs and two 8-inch wafer fabs in Japan, including UMC Fab12M (12-inch), Tower Uozu (12-inch), Tonami (8-inch), Arai (8 inches), located in Mie, Toyama, and Niigata prefectures, respectively, and separately experiencing quake magnitudes from 1 to 3 At present, these fabs are operating normally and any impact of the quake on the plants are largely insignificant However, IDM manufacturer Renesas’ Naka plant is within the magnitude 5 zone and they have also shut down and reduced production to confirm the impact of the quake
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/03/14
The output value of the world’s top 10 foundries in 4Q21 reached US$2955 billion, or 83% growth QoQ, according to TrendForce’s research This is due to the interaction of two major factors One is limited growth in overall production capacity At present, the shortage of certain components for TVs and laptops has eased but there are other peripheral materials derived from mature process such as PMIC, Wi-Fi, and MCU that are still in short supply, precipitating continued fully loaded foundry capacity Second is rising average selling price (ASP) In the fourth quarter, more expensive wafers were produced in succession led by TSMC and foundries continued to adjust their product mix to increase ASP In terms of changes in this quarter's top 10 ranking, Nexchip overtook incumbent DB Hitek to clinch 10th place
TrendForce believes that the output value of the world’s top ten foundries will maintain a growth trend in 1Q22 but appreciation in ASP will still be the primary driver of said growth However, since there are fewer first quarter working days in the Greater China Area due to the Lunar New Year holiday and this is the time when some foundries schedule an annual maintenance period, 1Q22 growth rate will be down slightly compared to 4Q21
Top 5 foundries account for nearly 90% of global market share, Samsung recovers share with advanced processes
Looking at the top five industry players, TSMC’s 4Q21 revenue reached US$1575 billion, a QoQ increase of 58% Although 5nm revenue spiked thanks to the new iPhone, 7/6nm revenue dropped due to a weak Chinese smartphone market, becoming the only TSMC node in decline in 4Q21, and inducing a contraction in TSMC revenue growth in 4Q21, though TSMC still accounts for more than 50% of global market share As one of TSMC’s few competitors in advanced processes below 7nm, Samsung strengthened 4Q21 revenue to US$554 billion, a quarterly increase of 153% owing to the gradual completion of new advanced 5/4nm process capacity and the mass production of new flagship products from major client Qualcomm Although Samsung's foundry business has posted record revenue, the slower ramp-up of advanced process capacity continues to erode overall profitability Therefore, TrendForce believes that improving advanced process capacity and yield in 1Q22 is one of Samsung’s top priorities
Constrained by limited growth in new production capacity and the fact that the new wave of wafers contracted at the latest pricing has yet to be produced, UMC's revenue stalled slightly in 4Q21, to US$212 billion, up 58% QoQ GlobalFoundries benefited from the release of new production capacity, product mix optimization, and new long-term agreement (LTA) pricing, pushing up ASP performance Revenue in 4Q22 hit US$185 billion, up 86% QoQ SMIC posted 4Q21 revenue of US$158 billion, 116% QoQ, due to mounting demand for products such as HV, MCU, Ultra Low Power Logic, and Specialty Memory as well as factors such as product mix adjustment and appreciating ASP
Surpassing DB Hitek, Nexchip officially breaks into the top 10 in 4Q21
The foundries ranked 6th to 9th are HuaHong Group, PSMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and Tower Semiconductor (Tower), respectively Each has benefiting from factors such as a utilization rate uniformly at full capacity, release of new production capacity, and adjustment of ASP and product mix, sustaining the growth of revenue performance It is worth mentioning, the acquisition of Tower by Intel netted Intel mature process technologies and a customer base and expanded the diversity and production capacity of its foundry business However, before this transaction is officially completed, Tower is still considered an independent entity in terms of the accounting process TrendForce states, after Intel's foundry business is properly integrated with Tower, Intel will officially enter the ranking of top ten foundries
Coming in 10th on the top 10 foundry ranking is Nexchip with revenue of US$352 million and a quarterly growth rate of 442%, the fastest growth rate among the top ten, and officially surpassed DB Hitek According to TrendForce investigations, the primary reason Nexchip was able to break into the top 10 in 4Q21 was the company's diligent production expansion Nexchip also plans to develop more advanced processes such as the 55/40/28nm nodes and multiple product lines including TDDI, CIS, and MCU, to compensate for its current single product line and limited customer base Since Nexchip is currently ramping-up operations quickly, its growth performance in 2022 should not be underestimated
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
